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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.