🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."